Showerthought: The spread on a 5-year fixed loan for a Phoenix office building went from 180 bps to 300 bps in a year.

I was looking at a deal from Q1 2023 and the same lender's quote today for a similar property. The rate jump is huge, but I'm split on the main cause. One side says it's just the Fed hikes and general market fear. The other argues it's more about Phoenix's specific office vacancy hitting 25% and lenders seeing way more risk there now. Which factor do you think is driving the bigger change in underwriting?

3 comments

3 Comments

christopherwilson25d agoMost Upvoted

Read a report that Phoenix office values dropped 40% since last year.

parkerk5625d ago

That's a huge jump. Honestly, the Phoenix vacancy rate is the real story here, the Fed stuff just made it worse.

jordanm192d ago

Taking that vacancy rate and layering on higher interest costs just crushed property values overnight. Tenants leaving those towers and nobody new coming in, the math gets ugly real quick for landlords.